Climate Change Is Worse Than You Think
If it seems like weather forecasts are becoming decreasingly accurate and increasingly speculative – well, that’s because they are. Experts use present-day climate models to predict how severe the weather will be in the future; except those predictions are becoming inaccurate because of the destabilisation of weather that has been observed across the world.
The scary part here is that the volatile temperatures and climate shifts we face isn’t even the worst part. It’s one thing to be able to predict, track, and account for these changes. However, if those predictions become unreliable, we cannot truly prepare for those shifts. That, then, is where the real danger lies.
If apocalyptic weather is on its way, you want to be prepared for it at the very least. This uncertainty around it is exacerbated by the fact that it is entirely one-sided. When experts get their estimations wrong, it is almost always because they have underestimated the severity of what was to come.
Here is how the prediction process works. As with all scientific experiments, there is a “control” and then there is the variable change. Traditionally, experts were able to use a control model – one that does not account for climate change – to test for how often severe weather would occur. This control would then by compared to a similar model that accounts for climate change.
Through this comparison, then, scientists were able to account for the increase in severe weather – it was trackable. This meant that this information could not only be used for purposes of public safety but also for further research on how to tone down these effects. That, though, is no longer the case.
Despite still using this model, the accuracy of its results are now falling. The reason for this seems to be that, despite accounting for climate change, recent weather patterns have become so erratic that they are throwing off the entire model.
At this point, the obvious question is “well why not overestimate in the model to compensate?” Unfortunately, it isn’t that simple. These models and mechanics are incredibly complicated – using depictions of jet streams to measure amplitude. However, current generation models don’t have the capacity to account for the severity we are seeing right now.
Yes, that means exactly what it sounds like. Climate change is now at the point where our current climate models don’t have the capacity to predict the severity of weather. This is why simple things such as using the weather app on your phone is not as accurate as it used to be. Moreover, this is why natural disasters are now occurring at a scary pace and we aren’t able to predict or deal with them.
A lot has been made about climate change. Some deny it, others think it might be overstated. The fact of the matter is, though, that it is worse than feared. Furthermore, it is going to keep getting worse if massive changes aren’t made and we will lose further capabilities to predict what will happen next.
When it comes to the Insurance Industry, climate change has a direct impact. Managing risk is the name of the game yet risk becomes unmanageable if even the weather cannot be predicted accurately. This has an effect on everything – from your car to your home to your business. Your next vacation may even be affected.
To learn more about how to stay protected, contact one of our licensed brokers at